Last week, Ukrainian troops liberated the key strategic city of Lyman in Donetsk oblast, handing Putin and the Russians another stinging defeat. Several weeks earlier, they had crashed through the Russian lines and in a blitzkrieg offensive had liberated almost all of occupied Kharkiv oblast from Putin’s marauding orcs. They are now poised to recapture large chunks of Luhansk that have been left vulnerable when the Russians redeployed significant troops from this area to the Kherson front to reinforce their defensive lines there. Those reinforcements don’t seem to be doing much good, as the Ukrainian forces in that sector continue to make slow and steady gains. No doubt, Kherson will fall too in the coming weeks or months.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Putin cannot win this war. He has already lost most of his best combat troops, has used up most of his inventory of advanced weapons, has sent Russia’s economy into a tailspin, and has made Russia a pariah state in the eyes of the world. Even worse, he is starting to feel increased resistance and pressure from his fellow Russians, most of whom have no appetite for his foolish and misguided war. The body bags returning home from the front are starting to weigh heavy on the Russian psyche. It is has become evident to almost everyone that this emperor has no clothes, and that he has descended into a delusional and psychotic state. Like his role model Adolf Hitler, he has even sidelined his generals and started to micro-manage the war, which can only hasten Russia’s ultimate defeat just as it did Germany’s seventy seven years ago.
It is tragic that Putin cannot face the brutal reality he has created and accept defeat. Instead, he keeps doubling down and escalating the conflict. His latest move to “annex” Ukrainian territories subsequent to blatantly fake referendums, has succeeded in painting him into a corner, with few remaining palatable options. He continues to threaten nuclear war, though that is not winning strategy in any sense of the word, since that would result in the total annihilation and destruction of Russia. In his delusional mental state, he may be willing to commit this form of suicide to escape humiliation, but I am pretty confident that the Russian military chain of command that is responsible for actually launching those nuclear missiles, have a stronger desire to live and survive, and would not be foolish enough to obey any command that would lead to their self-destruction. We must remember that they too have wives, children, parents and family that they love and would not want harmed.
The Russian authoritarian state and its military machine is a sinking ship, and there is little they can do to prevent it. The longer Putin continues on his current path, the more isolated he will become and the more likely he is to be deposed. He has already alienated most of the leadership of his army and his secret service by blaming them for his strategic incompetence and bad decisions, and undoubtedly, they will eventually dispose of him before he disposes of them.
It is now just a matter of time before this war concludes, and in all likelihood, Putin will not be around to see it end. The Russian authorities are beginning to understand that Ukraine and President Zelensky will not negotiate with Russia while Putin is in charge and Russian troops are in Ukraine. He has caused too much pain, death and destruction on the Ukrainian people. Secondly, he has lost all credibility and bargaining leverage, not only with Ukraine, but with the whole world in general. Aside from a handful of fellow petty dictators, Putin has no real friends or allies that will help bail him out.
The end game should be fairly straightforward. The U.S., NATO, the EU and the rest of the free world need to hold firm on tightening the economic noose on Russia that the sanctions have created. They need to keep the flow of military aid and high-tech weaponry to Ukraine going at an accelerated pace. They also need to make it clear that they are not going to buy into Putin’s nuclear bluff. The West’s nuclear hammer is much, much bigger than the Russians’, and Putin knows that very well.
I have no doubt that there are already back-channel conversations going on between the U.S. and NATO and their corresponding contacts within the Russian military and secret services, about a regime change in Russia that would lead to an end to this futile war. Let’s hope it happens sooner rather than later.
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